PHENEC is a project funded by the French National Agency for Research [ANR]. It has started on October 2019 and finished in March 2024.

The objective of PHENEC was to determine how phenology shapes the spatial distribution of species in a changing climate, by considering the increase in both, mean temperature and temperature variability. Although other changes in climate conditions (e.g. droughts) can affect the population dynamics, in this proposal we only consider the effects of temperatures changes since temperature is a major driver of both phenology and range expansions. Our research hypothesis was that variability in phenology drives species distribution and notably their spread rates, as explained in our opinion paper (Robinet et al. 2015 ). By changing the time window of some biological stages, the population could either survive better and accelerate the range expansion to favorable nearby areas, or instead, individuals could be exposed to more stressful conditions leading to the decrease of population abundance, and thus range pinning or even contraction. These conditions are not exclusive: some conditions of climate warming could be favorable or detrimental for populations depending on the geographical area. Both responses (phenology and distribution changes) should be jointly analyzed to deeply understand the overall effects of climate warming. This has never been done since the main barrier was a lack of knowledge on the mechanisms driving both changes. The mechanism was elucidated only for few species regarding phenology change and only for few species regarding distribution change. The target species was thus an important choice to insure the feasibility of this study and to be able to explore the mechanisms driving both changes and their inter-relation. In PHENEC, we considered the pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopea pityocampa (Denis & Schiffermüller) (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae) as our biological model (see section I c.). Model simulations, based on observations and experimentations, have been conducted to reveal these underlying mechanisms.

PHENEC had also an important applied objective: understanding and anticipating the changes in phenology improved pest management methods targeting particular life stages. In the context of reducing the use of phytosanitary chemicals and favor biocontrol, there is a societal need to improve the effectiveness of environmental-friendly pest management methods. For that purpose, the scientific progress done in our understanding of the effects of climate warming (objective above) contributed to improve these methods. Alerts in real-time based on weather forecasts have been issued for pest management.

To achieve our objective, we monitored the PPM phenology and its variability (Task 1), tested experimentally the thermal requirements for development and thermal limits of each life stage (Task 2), and modeled the phenology and its inter-relation with distribution (Task 3). To reach the applied objective, we have developped new management tools (Task 4). Task 5 addressed the coordination and the dissemination works.